US Dollar Index Falls, Traders Consider Fed Interest Rate Path
The prediction for the US dollar today tends toward a weakening trend, driven by European trading on Thursday (07/12). The market remains apprehensive ahead of key US jobs data, while the yen strengthens following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hints about potential shifts from the ultra-dovish central bank stance. Additionally, widespread anticipation suggests the Fed will likely maintain interest rates in December, although there's uncertainty about when the US central bank will begin trimming borrowing costs. This uncertainty has supported the dollar, even as private jobs data indicates further cooling in the labor market. The movement of the US Dollar Index also shows a decline in line with US bond yields. Overall trend movements also support a general decline against the USD, potentially for an extended period.
Bullish Continuation / Upward
Demand Levels: 2031.90 - 2038.71
The prediction for Gold today suggests a potentially significant rise, driven by its extended presence within the support area and numerous rejecting candles. This suggests that a significant downward trend might not materialize, especially considering the broader trend direction for gold indicates an upward trajectory. Additionally, the dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have fueled expectations that the Fed might reduce interest rates. Furthermore, recent payroll data released earlier this week hinted at a slowdown in the US job market. However, the market is awaiting definitive signals from the Nonfarm Payrolls data.
Bullish Reversal / Upward Movement
Demand Level: 69.19 – 69.79
Prediction for the movement of Oil suggests a correction upwards, despite its previous downward trend. The decline was impacted by the effects of the previous OPEC+ meeting, which indicated production cuts from several countries. However, at present, there's an anticipated sign of an upward movement or reversal due to concerns about Demand, particularly focused on the 'Non-Farm Payroll' data set to be released today (08/12). Additionally, disappointing ADP Non-Farm Data indicates that the US labor market continues to cool, while a significant surge in gasoline inventory signals a rapid decrease in fuel demand in the world's largest fuel consumers.
Bearish Reversal / Downward
Supply Levels: 144.290 - 143.850
The prediction for the USD tends to show continued decline, partly due to the Yen performing best in Asia today, strengthening 1.6% against the greenback after Ueda signaled more challenges for the BOJ in the coming months. He also spoke about options available to the bank when considering steps away from negative interest rates. His comments reinforced expectations that the BOJ would move away from ultra-dovish and fully stimulative policies next year. However, the unclear timing of this pivot keeps traders cautious. The Yen's strengthening is still restrained by Ueda emphasizing the need for loose policies in the near term, particularly amid signs of Japan's economy cooling further. The trend indicates a fairly strong downturn with no significant signs of reversal yet.
Bullish Reversal / Upward
Demand Level: 1.25474 - 1.25571
The prediction for the Pound Sterling indicates signs of continuing its upward movement as the overall trend still shows an upward trajectory. Pound Sterling tends to remain in a bullish trend or upward movement. There's an anticipated significant increase in Pound Sterling, presenting an opportunity for investors favoring the GBPUSD pair. Today, there's news of the 'NonFarm Payroll' release, which is predicted to significantly strengthen Pound Sterling. Candlestick analysis also supports the continuation of the Pound Sterling's rise, making this a point of attention and opportunity to consider.
Continuation Bullish / Upward
Demand Level: 35,806 - 35,956
The prediction for Dow Jones indicates a tendency for continued upward movement. Although the movement may not have a significant impact, the influence for this upward trend on the Dow Jones index remains quite high. This is supported by technical indications as the price is at a pivotal point. It signifies strengthening for the Dow Jones Index and presents an opportunity for investors as it has broken through resistance levels and gained support from candlesticks, attracting those inclined towards this index. Today, Dow is predicted to continue a significant upward trend, which is an awaited opportunity. Data suggests a weakening of the USD, which impacts the rise of the Dow Jones Index.
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