GBPUSD Strengthens as USD Slips; Focus on UK Data

Zarith Sofea · 22 Feb 8.1K Views


The WTI crude oil market is currently trading around $78.00 per barrel, displaying an upward trend. The recent boost in prices can be attributed to two main factors: statements from Federal Reserve officials and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates have likely reached their peak has positively impacted WTI prices. This suggests a potentially more accommodative monetary policy, leading to increased investment and economic activity. Traders and investors often view lower interest rates as favorable for commodities, including crude oil.

Additionally, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the oil market. Ongoing conflicts and uncertainties in the region can disrupt the supply of crude oil, leading to concerns about potential shortages. Investors tend to react to such uncertainties by increasing their holdings in oil as a safe haven.

However, it's crucial to note that the January FOMC Minutes hinted at a rise in crude oil inventories in the US. Last week, inventories increased by 7.168 million barrels, slightly lower than the previous 8.52 million barrels. This could exert downward pressure on oil prices as higher inventories may lead to oversupply concerns.

Recommendation for WTI:

Considering the current trend and the factors influencing WTI prices, it might be prudent for traders to cautiously monitor the situation. If geopolitical tensions persist and the Federal Reserve maintains a dovish stance, WTI prices could continue their upward trajectory. However, it's essential to keep a close eye on inventory data, as any unexpected increase could reverse the trend.


The GBPUSD pair is exhibiting strength, trading below the mid-1.2600s during the early Asian session on Thursday. The primary driver for this strength is the focus on the UK's economic indicators, specifically the UK S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February.

Currently trading at 1.2638, the pair has gained 0.04% on the day. The modest decline of the USD, as mentioned by Fed officials who want more evidence before considering rate cuts, has provided support for the GBPUSD pair.

Recommendation for GBPUSD:

Traders should closely monitor the UK economic indicators, particularly the PMI for February. Positive data could further strengthen the GBP/USD pair, while any surprises to the downside might lead to a reversal. Keep an eye on developments related to the USD, as any significant changes in the US monetary policy outlook could impact the pair.


XAUUSD prices are experiencing an upward movement on Thursday, primarily supported by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar. The rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is contributing to the safe-haven appeal of gold. Additionally, the softer dollar is making gold more attractive to investors.

As of 0100 GMT, spot gold is up 0.1% at $2,026.9 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures have edged 0.1% higher at $2,035.8 per ounce.

Recommendation for XAUUSD:

Given the current market dynamics, gold seems to be in a favorable position. Traders may consider long positions, as geopolitical uncertainties and a dovish Fed could continue to support gold prices. However, it's essential to monitor the dollar's movements, as any sudden strength in the currency could pose a risk to gold's upward trajectory.


In summary, the daily analysis suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for WTI crude oil and gold prices, while the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting strength but requires close monitoring of economic indicators. 

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